Bernanke Secret Sauce Drops Effective Fed Rate as QE Quantified

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MINUTAS DE LA FED INDICAN QUE ES PROBABLE UNA REDUCCION DE LOS ESTIMULOS MONETARIOS

Minutas completas
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20131030.pdf

Algunos párrafos para resaltar
Importante visión de la Fed sobre el crecimiento mundial principalmente de los emergentes

Foreign economic growth appeared to improve in the third quarter following a sluggish first half, largely re-flecting stronger growth estimated for China and a re-bound in Mexico from contraction in the previous quarter. Growth also picked up in the third quarter in the United Kingdom, and available indicators suggested an increase in growth in Canada and continued mild recovery in the euro area. Economic activity in Japan appeared to have decelerated somewhat from its first-half pace but continued to expand, and inflation meas-ured on a 12-month basis turned positive in the middle of this year. Inflation elsewhere generally remained subdued. Monetary policy stayed highly accommoda-tive in advanced foreign economies. In addition, the Bank of Mexico continued to ease monetary policy, citing concerns about the strength of the economy, but central banks in certain other emerging market econo-mies, including Brazil and India, tightened policy and intervened in currency markets in response to concerns about the

Vision sobre la evolución del consumo americano

Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose moderately in August. In September, nominal retail sales, excluding those at motor vehicle and parts out-lets, increased significantly, while sales of light motor vehicles declined. Recent readings on key factors that influence consumer spending were somewhat mixed: Households’ net worth likely expanded further as both equity values and home prices rose in recent months, and real disposable incomes increased solidly in Au-gust, but measures of consumer sentiment declined in September and October.

Interesante visión sobre comportamiento de las tasas de interés e impacto sobre el sector inmobiliario

Financial conditions eased notably over the intermeet-ing period, with declines in longer-term interest rates and increases in equity values. Financial quotes sug-gested that markets moved out the date at which they expected to see the Committee first increase the federal funds rate target. It was noted that interest rate volatili-ty was substantially lower than at the time of the Sep-tember meeting, and a couple of participants pointed to signs suggesting that reaching-for-yield behavior might be increasing again. Nevertheless, term premiums ap-peared to only partially retrace their rise of earlier in the year, and longer-term interest rates remained well above their levels in the spring. A few participants ex-pressed concerns about the eventual economic impact of the change in financial conditions since the spring; in particular, increases in mortgage rates and home prices had reduced the affordability of housing, and the high-er rates were at least partly responsible for some slow-ing in that sector. One participant stated that the ex-tended period of near-zero interest rates continued to create challenges for the banking industry, as net inter-est margins remained under pressure.

REPORT OF THE 31/07/2013 FEDERAL RESERVE CONCLUSIONS

The US Federal Reserve.UU. It has indicated that it will keep purchases per month of $ 85 billion in mortgage securities and treasuries

The FED has given no indication of date certain to begin to reduce the amount of stimulus money, even though fixed as objective fact to keep in mind that unemployment should reach 6.5% to evaluate the withdrawal of monetary stimuli

It has pledged to keep the benchmark rate at 0.25 %

It has warned that low inflation could harm the economic expansion but the long term within the expected inflation rate, since I change the qualification of growth as "modest" from "moderate" mainly by the "flashy" adjust I Q of the 2013 growth downward

The labour market has improved although the unemployment rate remains high, as objective an unemployment rate of 6.5 %

He pointed out that investment in companies that has grown by 9% in the IIQ, consumption product of progress in employment creation and the sector housing is spreading mainly highlighting the increased valuation of real estate, while mortgage rates have been rising.

Conclusions

As the main fact is that stimuli will remain without a date certain end but if it is important that it has set objective data of evaluation which is 6.5% in the unemployment rate, given the pace of employment growth can predict that the horizon so that it begins to decrease stimulus them are far.

A very important data to take into account is the value of the properties that it is growing has moderated in the last month and is in jeopardy by the rise in long-term rates mainly those concerning mortgage loans.

Long inflation is being observed since to be tendentially below 2.5% of the projected it might endanger the economic recovery process, is the great fear of Ben Bernanke to the deflationary processes known, obviously strong monetary expansion will not pass an inflation in the prices of goods and services but that have been derived to a strong process of revaluation of financial assets (stock market developing bubble) and exporting inflation to the real assets in emerging countries.

INFORME DE LA FED DEL 31/7/2013 PRINCIPALES CONCLUSIONES

La Reserva Federal de EE.UU. ha indicado que mantendrá sus compras mensuales de 85.000 millones de dólares en títulos hipotecarios y bonos del Tesoro

La FED no ha dado indicios de fecha cierta para comenzar a reducir el volumen de estimulo monetario, si bien fijo como dato objetivo a tener en cuenta que el desempleo debe llegar a 6,5% para evaluar el retiro de los estímulos monetarios

Se ha comprometido a mantener la tasa de referencia en 0,25 %  

Ha alertado que la baja inflación podría perjudicar la expansión económica aunque la tasa de inflación de largo plazo dentro de lo previsto, dado que cambio la calificación del crecimiento como “modesto” desde “moderado” principalmente por el “llamativo” ajuste a la baja del crecimiento del I Q del 2013

El mercado laboral ha mejorado aunque la tasa de desempleo sigue siendo alta, poniendo como objetivo una tasa de desempleo del 6,5%

Ha destacado que la inversión en las empresas que ha crecido un 9% en el IIQ, el consumo producto del avance en la generación de empleo y el sector vivienda se está expandiendo principalmente destacando la valoración creciente de los bienes inmuebles,  a pesar de que las tasas de créditos hipotecarios han venido subiendo.

Conclusiones

Como principal dato es que los estímulos seguirán sin tener una fecha cierta de finalización pero si es importante que ha fijado un dato objetivo de evaluación que es el 6,5% en la tasa de desempleo, que dado el ritmo de crecimiento del empleo podemos predecir que el horizonte para que se empiece a disminuir los estimulo están lejos.

Un dato muy importante a tener en cuenta es el valor de las propiedades que si bien es creciente se ha moderado en el último mes y se encuentra en peligro por las suba de tasa de largo plazo principalmente a las que se refiere los créditos hipotecarios.

La inflación de Largo está siendo observada dado que al estar tendencialmente por debajo del 2,5% del proyectado puede poner en riesgo el proceso de recuperación económica, es sabido el gran temor de Ben Bernanke a los procesos deflacionarios, obviamente la fuerte expansión monetaria no convalida una inflación en los Precios de los bienes y  servicios sino que han sido derivados a un fuerte proceso de revaluación de activos financieros (burbuja bursátil en desarrollo) y la exportación de inflación a los activos reales de los países emergentes.