lunes, 13 de octubre de 2014

ARGENTINA: A SLOW BUT PERMANENT IMPAIRMENT OF EXCHANGE AND MONETARY SITUATION

After a week of management Lic. Alejandro Vanoli as president of the Central Bank of Argentina would be very premature to make an analysis of it, but from the official media talk about a major success for dominion over the dollar and the dollar blue cash upon liquidation. 
We must emphasize, that the body now lacks tools to manage the exchange rate (with some degree of success) and additionally make an expansionary monetary policy that encourages consumption and investment, giving exchange tranquility on one hand, while trying to revive the sIMULTANEOUSLY weakened economy, I would say today that both objectives are contradictory 
Since opponents analysts took the position away from the problem, to see that it can happen, as if waiting for a miracle and fed the hope that this government transiting the last few days on a path of rationality, forgetting that we have 11 years of improvisation and bad economic praxis, especially in the last 4 years, in this sense can be projected that the measures to be taken by the Lic. Alejandro Vanoli going the same way as those adopted in the latter period, considering that the replacement was not by a monetarist expert, but by a person loyal to the incumbent government, devoid of technical CAPACITY for the office, ready to take any action even outside the orbit and legal regulations of the Central Bank of Argentina 

DATA BCRA 

BOOKING 
Today we have for U $ S 27.7 billion, this value should be deducted U $ S 4 billion debt for deferred payment of importers agreement reached after the devaluation in January and U $ S 4 billion lace by foreign currency deposits, which should be available to any outflow of deposits from the system. whereby the Central Bank of Argentina has only U $ S 19.000 million RESEVAS FREE AVAILABILITY 

MONETARY BASE 
There is an issue of money than $ 406 billion with the addition of a Stock Lebac not more than 60 days average maturity for $ 210 billion 
These hard data highlighted REALITY well, because from the government is always trying to deny them or not take them as being the problem, make it impossible without income can manage GENUINE CURRENCY exchange this virtual dollar value of $ 8.5 

PROJECTED CASH TO DECEMBER 2014 
This monetary radiograph should be projected forward and that we are 
With the need for additional monetary issuance of $ 150 billion to finance FISCAL DEFICIT (main problem today for its stiffness) that the refusal of the Ministry of Economy of the BCRA sterilize such issuance to encourage consumption and / or investment , 
A Monetary Base is planned for the end of year of $ 550 billion 
In relation to the reserves have commitments for $ 4 billion S giving a projected STOCKS AVAILABLE FREE FOR U $ S 15 billion 

Given the hard facts and monetary targets reservation is impossible for the commitment of the Minister of Economy to major local employers not to devalue is met 
But considering the short week management Lic. Alejandro Vanoli just repetitive and repressive measures were taken 
It was agreed with the main operators of the dollar blue an exchange holiday (as if to combat drugs a country agreed with the heads of the cartels to stop producing and selling for couple of days) quota transaction the dollar I was assigned spot against liquidation 
A tax of 35% on gains from sales of shares abroad was applied (of questionable legality because the tax authority has the Congress of the Nation) 
This truce is a small achievement in the market with a small blue dollar lower product no pending transactions and the main players counted against settlement to suit the new tax provisions. 
WHILE the main problem is the GENUINE FUNDING DEFICIT TAX remains outside the official agenda and that necessity is the direct responsibility of the Ministry of Economy, no habiéndola taken since 2007 to date, having meaning replacement 4 presidents of the Central Bank of Argentina from 2010 to date, with two amendments to the charter of the mime 2010 and 2012 that led to monetary and exchange rate we are seeing bankruptcy and deepening 

CONCLUSION 

The government continues to deny that the absence of genuine FISCAL DEFICIT funding is the main problem of the currency crisis 
The rise of the dollar blue and dollar cash upon settlement with the design of monetary emission and fall of free reserves is a target in the range of $ 22-$ 25 have a very optimistic outlook as it is likely to begin to speculate that in January can resolve the issue of selective default by the expiration RUFO clausular. (only element of favorable expectation on the economic horizon) 
It is impossible to get different results using the same measures of repressive character, systematically denied the REALITY

http://www.fundssociety.com/es/opinion/argentina-un-deterioro-lento-pero-permanente-de-la-situacion-cambiaria-y-monetaria