martes, 7 de octubre de 2014

CRISIS EXCHANGE HAS ENDED V FAVORABLE SETTLEMENT CYCLE AND CURRENCY EXCHANGE DETERIORATION IS ACCELERATING

In my report entitled Foreign Exchange Crisis II 
BCRA strategy is successful or simply answered seasonality? 
http://macrotendencia.blogspot.com.ar/2014/03/exitosa-la-politica-del-b-c-r-a.html 
Concluding the 09/03/2014 
"Undoubtedly the mechanism of negative interest rates has ended to boost consumer spending, it is clear that never encouraged a genuine investment process, but I must emphasize that the reduction in monetary base responds to a natural process of seasonal monetary market and prevent the loss of reserves make the central bank more vulnerable to face a new run on the currency will inevitably happen, rather than a more aggressive approach to its restrictive monetary policy on financing PUBLIC SPENDING aND FISCAL DEFICIT THEREFORE the authority of the Central Bank. 
The real strategy will prevail in these months where you have to deal with the increase in the fiscal deficit caused by the new joint state and possible imbalances in public finances by lower income tax collection LIVE already noticed during the months of December and January . 

By the time the new president of the BCRA had a good marketing policy of its management, with the desire of the financial and economic world that Argentina into a path of rationality in decision-making before 2015 "

In my report titled III CRISIS EXCHANGE 
RAISING MONEY ISSUE, AND STOCK OF LEBAC NOBAC STRONG INCREASE IN TAXES, AND ONLY amesetamiento THE FALL OF RESERVES 
http://macrotendencia.blogspot.com.ar/2014/03/crisis-cambiaria-iii-amesetamiento-de.html 

Concluding the day 24/03/2014 
"CONCLUSION 
In monetary matters can be demonstrated that although it has taken concrete action, as opposed to the previous administration major variables that led to the devaluation of the currency and the strong inflationary pressure in the last three months have not eradicated considering major management numbers 
Bookings Fall 14% 
Increase the monetary base by 4% despite the strong absorption of BCRA via letters 
Increase in Stock B-C.R.A letter. 33% in a month via increased rates 
Increase in Central Bank Interest rates of 88% increasing the quasi-fiscal deficit, reminding the end of the 80 that. conclude with hyperinflation 
Increased rate of 37% Badlar 
Clearly orthodox monetary course to try to avoid further devaluation, so far only one can observe a leveling off of the decline in bank reserves, 
The emission still can be reduced given the strong fiscal deficit of the central government and that only existed on this aspect yet. 
And the interest rate increase simultaneously with the restriction of funds to the market through issuance of letters, beat on economic activity showing in the last two months sharp falls in consumption and obviously on the level of investment and punished. 
Nothing too costs in the activity level to poor performance in terms of inflation and regain control of the exchange administration "

Finally in my article titled IV CRISIS EXCHANGE 

http://macrotendencia.blogspot.com.ar/2014/07/crisis-cambiaria-iv-fuerte-aumento-de.html

INCREASING THE MONETARY BASE, AND STOCK OF LEBAC, WEAK GROWTH STOCKS 

Reached the following conclusions on 13/07/2014 

CONCLUSIONS 
This concludes the most important foreign exchange earnings from exports of soybeans and reserve levels seasonal period has only slowed his fall but neither reached recovered to the levels of early years around U $ S 31.000 million which the weakness that the Central Bank has to manage the exchange rate policy remains intact 
Cooling the government wanted to avoid, weak consumption, the fall in real wages joint fastener product below inflationary expectations, and the sector employee in reasonable fear of job loss has prevailed to the will of the national government. 
The dollar continues to lose competitiveness because inflation levels from January to date have not decreased and a new devaluation becomes increasingly necessary. 
By the time the financial market is distracted (not taking into account that Argentina can extend your default to new debt, it is clear that never left the default) in the whole scheme of negotiation with creditors who did not enter the exchange and obtained the fault favor of American justice, or discounting was reached a settlement with the same (as far as technically legally) with the only element for which the current government would close politically anyway, given the monetary and exchange emergency that has to confront the past 18 months in office 
Finally the monetary situation in monetary base function, and monetary stock Lebac official dollar reserves would give around $ 12 and close to the $ 17 dolarblue to maintain equilibrium exchange 

Undoubtedly the favorable seasonal period income has not fixed currency exchange problems BCRA 

reservations 
They have broken the $ S28 billion unfavorable trend, commitment to pay for imports delayed by U $ S 5,000 million and lace BCRA U $ S 6000 that would give the amount of U $ S 17 billion free reserves, insignificant figures to continue managing the exchange rate around 8.5 

monetary Base 
He has reached 390 billion pesos having absorbed the last week more than 20 billion 

Lebac 
Have been increased to reach 220 billion pesos 

CONCLUSION 

Despite the sharp increase in rate 
Fall of economic activity 
Having crossed the positive foreign exchange settlement cycle 
The problem of the external sector remains intact a dolar estimated gross reserves minus imports taking earrings would give us a dollar to $ 16.50 and free reserves taking approximately $ 22 
The fall in reserves has not stopped and has started the last week to accelerate the dollar gap between blue-chip and having shrunk. 
and has greatly increased the Stock Lebac more than 100% since the beginning of the year to absorb the weights given to the treasury to cover fiscal deficit to avoid higher inflation and an even greater level of dollar 
Without a doubt the biggest problem is the LACK OF FINANCE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, 
Having led the nation overall tax burden province and municipalities 40% 
confiscated the box of the administrators that has served to alleviate part of public spending and expansion plans as supposedly countercyclical 
Draining Reserves at Central Bank of the Charter amendment in 2010 
and entrusting to BCRA emission free ticket to hold the fiscal deficit at the last reform of the charter in 2012 
He likes me or not the private sector has made its adjustment via suspensions and dismissals fall in real wages 
Today the state sector continues to spend without considering their lack of funding inevitably lead to an acceleration of inflation and a greater appreciation of the dollar, depending on the magnitude of the behavior of private actors who decide to cover if saving (increased dollar) or consume (inflation)