lunes, 13 de octubre de 2014

ARGENTINA: A SLOW BUT PERMANENT IMPAIRMENT OF EXCHANGE AND MONETARY SITUATION

After a week of management Lic. Alejandro Vanoli as president of the Central Bank of Argentina would be very premature to make an analysis of it, but from the official media talk about a major success for dominion over the dollar and the dollar blue cash upon liquidation. 
We must emphasize, that the body now lacks tools to manage the exchange rate (with some degree of success) and additionally make an expansionary monetary policy that encourages consumption and investment, giving exchange tranquility on one hand, while trying to revive the sIMULTANEOUSLY weakened economy, I would say today that both objectives are contradictory 
Since opponents analysts took the position away from the problem, to see that it can happen, as if waiting for a miracle and fed the hope that this government transiting the last few days on a path of rationality, forgetting that we have 11 years of improvisation and bad economic praxis, especially in the last 4 years, in this sense can be projected that the measures to be taken by the Lic. Alejandro Vanoli going the same way as those adopted in the latter period, considering that the replacement was not by a monetarist expert, but by a person loyal to the incumbent government, devoid of technical CAPACITY for the office, ready to take any action even outside the orbit and legal regulations of the Central Bank of Argentina 

DATA BCRA 

BOOKING 
Today we have for U $ S 27.7 billion, this value should be deducted U $ S 4 billion debt for deferred payment of importers agreement reached after the devaluation in January and U $ S 4 billion lace by foreign currency deposits, which should be available to any outflow of deposits from the system. whereby the Central Bank of Argentina has only U $ S 19.000 million RESEVAS FREE AVAILABILITY 

MONETARY BASE 
There is an issue of money than $ 406 billion with the addition of a Stock Lebac not more than 60 days average maturity for $ 210 billion 
These hard data highlighted REALITY well, because from the government is always trying to deny them or not take them as being the problem, make it impossible without income can manage GENUINE CURRENCY exchange this virtual dollar value of $ 8.5 

PROJECTED CASH TO DECEMBER 2014 
This monetary radiograph should be projected forward and that we are 
With the need for additional monetary issuance of $ 150 billion to finance FISCAL DEFICIT (main problem today for its stiffness) that the refusal of the Ministry of Economy of the BCRA sterilize such issuance to encourage consumption and / or investment , 
A Monetary Base is planned for the end of year of $ 550 billion 
In relation to the reserves have commitments for $ 4 billion S giving a projected STOCKS AVAILABLE FREE FOR U $ S 15 billion 

Given the hard facts and monetary targets reservation is impossible for the commitment of the Minister of Economy to major local employers not to devalue is met 
But considering the short week management Lic. Alejandro Vanoli just repetitive and repressive measures were taken 
It was agreed with the main operators of the dollar blue an exchange holiday (as if to combat drugs a country agreed with the heads of the cartels to stop producing and selling for couple of days) quota transaction the dollar I was assigned spot against liquidation 
A tax of 35% on gains from sales of shares abroad was applied (of questionable legality because the tax authority has the Congress of the Nation) 
This truce is a small achievement in the market with a small blue dollar lower product no pending transactions and the main players counted against settlement to suit the new tax provisions. 
WHILE the main problem is the GENUINE FUNDING DEFICIT TAX remains outside the official agenda and that necessity is the direct responsibility of the Ministry of Economy, no habiéndola taken since 2007 to date, having meaning replacement 4 presidents of the Central Bank of Argentina from 2010 to date, with two amendments to the charter of the mime 2010 and 2012 that led to monetary and exchange rate we are seeing bankruptcy and deepening 

CONCLUSION 

The government continues to deny that the absence of genuine FISCAL DEFICIT funding is the main problem of the currency crisis 
The rise of the dollar blue and dollar cash upon settlement with the design of monetary emission and fall of free reserves is a target in the range of $ 22-$ 25 have a very optimistic outlook as it is likely to begin to speculate that in January can resolve the issue of selective default by the expiration RUFO clausular. (only element of favorable expectation on the economic horizon) 
It is impossible to get different results using the same measures of repressive character, systematically denied the REALITY

http://www.fundssociety.com/es/opinion/argentina-un-deterioro-lento-pero-permanente-de-la-situacion-cambiaria-y-monetaria

ARGENTINA: UN DETERIORO LENTO PERO PERMANENTE DE LA SITUACION CAMBIARIA Y MONETARIA

Luego de una semana de gestión del Lic. Alejandro Vanoli como presidente del Banco Central de la República Argentina seria muy prematuro realizar un análisis de la misma, aunque desde los medios oficialistas se habla de un importante éxito por dominio sobre el dolar blue y el dolar contado contra liquidación.
Debemos destacar, que dicho organismo hoy carece de herramientas para administrar el tipo de cambio (con algún grado de exito) y adicionalmente realizar una política monetaria expansiva que aliente el consumo y la inversión, dando tranquilidad cambiaria por un lado, mientras se intenta reactivar la debilitada economia SIMULTANEAMENTE, diria hoy que ambos objetivos son contradictorias
Desde los analistas opositores tomaron la postura de alejarse del problema, ver que puede suceder, como a la espera de un milagro y alimentaran la esperanza que este gobierno transite los últimos días en un camino de racionalidad, olvidando que llevamos 11 años de improvisación y mala praxis económica, principalmente en estos últimos 4 años, en este sentido se puede proyectar que las medidas a ser tomadas por el Lic. Alejandro Vanoli van por el mismo camino que las adoptadas en este ultimo periodo, teniendo en cuenta que el recambio, no fue por un experto monetarista, sino por una persona leal al gobierno de turno, carente de capacitad tecnica para el cargo, dispuesto a tomar cualquier medida aun fuera de la órbita legal y normativas del Banco Central de la República Argentina 

DATOS del BCRA 

RESERVAS
Hoy se cuenta con por  U$S 27700 millones, de ese valor se debe descontar U$S 4000 millones de deudas por diferimiento de pago de importadores por acuerdo alcanzado luego de la devaluacion del mes de enero y U$S 4000 millones de encajes por depósitos en moneda extranjera, que deben estar disponibles para una eventual salida de depósitos del sistema. con lo cual el Banco Central de la Republica Argentina cuenta con solo U$S 19.000 millones de RESEVAS DE LIBRE DISPONIBILIDAD

BASE MONETARIA 
Existe una emisión de dinero de $ 406 mil millones con el agregado de un Stock de Lebac de vencimiento promedio no mayor a 60 días por $ 210 mil millones 
Estos datos duros de la REALIDAD resaltado así, porque desde el gobiernos siempre se intento negarlos o no tomarlos como causa de los problemas, hacen imposible que sin ingreso de DIVISAS GENUINAS puedan administrar el tipo de cambio a este valor virtual de dolar de $8,5 

PROYECCION MONETARIA A DICIEMBRE 2014
Esta radiografía monetaria debe proyectarse a futuro y en eso nos encontramos 
Con la necesidad de emisión monetaria adicional de $ 150 mil millones para financiar el DEFICIT FISCAL (principal problema en la actualidad por su rigidez) que ante la negativa del Ministerio de Economia de que el BCRA esterilice dicha emisión para alentar el consumo y/o inversión,
Se proyecta una Base Monetaria para fin de año de $ 550 mil millones  
En relacion de las reservas se tienen compromisos por  U$S 4 mil millones dando un proyectado de RESERVAS DE LIBRE DISPONIBILIDAD POR U$S 15 mil millones

Teniendo en cuenta los datos duros objetivos monetarios y de reservas es imposible que el compromiso del Ministro de Economía ante los principales empresarios locales de no devaluar se cumpla
Mas teniendo en cuenta que en la breve semana de gestión del Lic. Alejandro Vanoli solo se tomaron medidas repetitivas y represivas
Se acordó con los principales operadores del dolar blue un feriado cambiario (como si para combatir la droga un pais acordara con los jefes de los carteles que dejen de producir y vender por par de dias) Se asigno cupo de transacción al dolar contado contra liquidación 
Se aplico un impuesto del 35%  a las ganancia por ventas de acciones en el exterior (de dudosa legalidad ya que las facultades tributarias las tiene el Honorable Congreso de la Nación)
Con ello se logro una pequeña tregua en el mercado del dolar blue con una pequeña baja producto de ausencia de transacciones y la espera de los principales operadores del contado contra liquidación para adecuarse a las nuevas disposiciones tributarias.
Mientra el principal problema que es el FINANCIAMIENTO GENUINO DEL DEFICIT FISCAL sigue estando fuera de la agenda oficial y esa necesidad es responsabilidad directa del Ministerio de Economía, no habiéndola asumido desde el 2007 a la fecha, habiendo significado el recambio de 4 presidentes del Banco Central de la Republica Argentina desde el 2010 a la fecha, con dos reformas a la carta orgánica del mimo año 2010 y 2012 que lo llevaron a la insolvencia monetaria y cambiaria que estamos observando y profundizando 


CONCLUSION

  • El gobierno sigue negando que la ausencia de financiamiento genuino del DEFICIT FISCAL es el principal problema de la crisis cambiaria
  • La suba del dolar blue y del dolar contado contra liquidacion con la proyeccion de emision monetaria y caida de reservas de libre disponibilidad tiene un objetivo en el rango de $22-$25 teniendo una mirada muy optimista dado que es probable que se empiece a especular que en enero se pueda resolver el tema del default selectivo por el vencimiento de la clausular RUFO. (único elemento de expectativa favorable en el horizonte económico)
  • Es imposible obtener resultados distintos aplicando medidas iguales de carácter represivos, negando sistemáticamente la REALIDAD


domingo, 12 de octubre de 2014

YPF STRONGLY TIED BY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REALITY

Undeniably see the great potential that the company has to be an energy superpower, it hurts this in Argentina where a total inability to take advantage of opportunities, both in energy and in the agro-export sector and will obviously have to overcome as any company based in Argentina, the now unavoidable and currency collapse similar to 1989 financial and socially will be similar to 2001 at this point only a miracle can help it.
http://www.fundssociety.com/es/opinion/no-es-2001-pero-argentina-vive-el-mismo-proceso-que-llevo-a-la-crisis-social-mas-importante 

MONTHLY CHART 



Nothing is technically notes that bearish long-term trend beyond the sharp bounce minimum, having reached only 50% of all fall product confiscation (later transformed into expropriation), is crucial to see the behavior of the MACD that is anticipating the possible end of the climb 

WEEKLY CHART 


In the week a major break of a dynamic channel that has become bullish ceiling for now 32u $ s can be seen a stand, but I think anger looking at the medium term mainly U $ S 26 must be incorporated into the price the impossibility of external financing and the inevitable default of the entire public debt Argentina after being enacted law change of venue to pay the notes, it is likely that current investor who anticipated a smooth cycle to try to defend price and avoid a drop in price, but the political, economic and financial reality of Primara country on any irrational response from this sector 

DAILY GRAPHIC 


In the short-term bearish trend is observed, it is interesting to analyze the behavior of the MACD gives signs of exhaustion having a support U $ S 26, although the tampering with any rise that will exit opportunity for investors may they are exposed to this company and have overestimated the Vaca Muerta reservoir without having assessed the political and financial factors that have to be resolved Argentina. 
Exacerbated the crisis of probable re-think it in close values ​​of U $ S 10. incorporate into prices the financial and political problems that are now ignored by the market

martes, 7 de octubre de 2014

CRISIS EXCHANGE HAS ENDED V FAVORABLE SETTLEMENT CYCLE AND CURRENCY EXCHANGE DETERIORATION IS ACCELERATING

In my report entitled Foreign Exchange Crisis II 
BCRA strategy is successful or simply answered seasonality? 
http://macrotendencia.blogspot.com.ar/2014/03/exitosa-la-politica-del-b-c-r-a.html 
Concluding the 09/03/2014 
"Undoubtedly the mechanism of negative interest rates has ended to boost consumer spending, it is clear that never encouraged a genuine investment process, but I must emphasize that the reduction in monetary base responds to a natural process of seasonal monetary market and prevent the loss of reserves make the central bank more vulnerable to face a new run on the currency will inevitably happen, rather than a more aggressive approach to its restrictive monetary policy on financing PUBLIC SPENDING aND FISCAL DEFICIT THEREFORE the authority of the Central Bank. 
The real strategy will prevail in these months where you have to deal with the increase in the fiscal deficit caused by the new joint state and possible imbalances in public finances by lower income tax collection LIVE already noticed during the months of December and January . 

By the time the new president of the BCRA had a good marketing policy of its management, with the desire of the financial and economic world that Argentina into a path of rationality in decision-making before 2015 "

In my report titled III CRISIS EXCHANGE 
RAISING MONEY ISSUE, AND STOCK OF LEBAC NOBAC STRONG INCREASE IN TAXES, AND ONLY amesetamiento THE FALL OF RESERVES 
http://macrotendencia.blogspot.com.ar/2014/03/crisis-cambiaria-iii-amesetamiento-de.html 

Concluding the day 24/03/2014 
"CONCLUSION 
In monetary matters can be demonstrated that although it has taken concrete action, as opposed to the previous administration major variables that led to the devaluation of the currency and the strong inflationary pressure in the last three months have not eradicated considering major management numbers 
Bookings Fall 14% 
Increase the monetary base by 4% despite the strong absorption of BCRA via letters 
Increase in Stock B-C.R.A letter. 33% in a month via increased rates 
Increase in Central Bank Interest rates of 88% increasing the quasi-fiscal deficit, reminding the end of the 80 that. conclude with hyperinflation 
Increased rate of 37% Badlar 
Clearly orthodox monetary course to try to avoid further devaluation, so far only one can observe a leveling off of the decline in bank reserves, 
The emission still can be reduced given the strong fiscal deficit of the central government and that only existed on this aspect yet. 
And the interest rate increase simultaneously with the restriction of funds to the market through issuance of letters, beat on economic activity showing in the last two months sharp falls in consumption and obviously on the level of investment and punished. 
Nothing too costs in the activity level to poor performance in terms of inflation and regain control of the exchange administration "

Finally in my article titled IV CRISIS EXCHANGE 

http://macrotendencia.blogspot.com.ar/2014/07/crisis-cambiaria-iv-fuerte-aumento-de.html

INCREASING THE MONETARY BASE, AND STOCK OF LEBAC, WEAK GROWTH STOCKS 

Reached the following conclusions on 13/07/2014 

CONCLUSIONS 
This concludes the most important foreign exchange earnings from exports of soybeans and reserve levels seasonal period has only slowed his fall but neither reached recovered to the levels of early years around U $ S 31.000 million which the weakness that the Central Bank has to manage the exchange rate policy remains intact 
Cooling the government wanted to avoid, weak consumption, the fall in real wages joint fastener product below inflationary expectations, and the sector employee in reasonable fear of job loss has prevailed to the will of the national government. 
The dollar continues to lose competitiveness because inflation levels from January to date have not decreased and a new devaluation becomes increasingly necessary. 
By the time the financial market is distracted (not taking into account that Argentina can extend your default to new debt, it is clear that never left the default) in the whole scheme of negotiation with creditors who did not enter the exchange and obtained the fault favor of American justice, or discounting was reached a settlement with the same (as far as technically legally) with the only element for which the current government would close politically anyway, given the monetary and exchange emergency that has to confront the past 18 months in office 
Finally the monetary situation in monetary base function, and monetary stock Lebac official dollar reserves would give around $ 12 and close to the $ 17 dolarblue to maintain equilibrium exchange 

Undoubtedly the favorable seasonal period income has not fixed currency exchange problems BCRA 

reservations 
They have broken the $ S28 billion unfavorable trend, commitment to pay for imports delayed by U $ S 5,000 million and lace BCRA U $ S 6000 that would give the amount of U $ S 17 billion free reserves, insignificant figures to continue managing the exchange rate around 8.5 

monetary Base 
He has reached 390 billion pesos having absorbed the last week more than 20 billion 

Lebac 
Have been increased to reach 220 billion pesos 

CONCLUSION 

Despite the sharp increase in rate 
Fall of economic activity 
Having crossed the positive foreign exchange settlement cycle 
The problem of the external sector remains intact a dolar estimated gross reserves minus imports taking earrings would give us a dollar to $ 16.50 and free reserves taking approximately $ 22 
The fall in reserves has not stopped and has started the last week to accelerate the dollar gap between blue-chip and having shrunk. 
and has greatly increased the Stock Lebac more than 100% since the beginning of the year to absorb the weights given to the treasury to cover fiscal deficit to avoid higher inflation and an even greater level of dollar 
Without a doubt the biggest problem is the LACK OF FINANCE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, 
Having led the nation overall tax burden province and municipalities 40% 
confiscated the box of the administrators that has served to alleviate part of public spending and expansion plans as supposedly countercyclical 
Draining Reserves at Central Bank of the Charter amendment in 2010 
and entrusting to BCRA emission free ticket to hold the fiscal deficit at the last reform of the charter in 2012 
He likes me or not the private sector has made its adjustment via suspensions and dismissals fall in real wages 
Today the state sector continues to spend without considering their lack of funding inevitably lead to an acceleration of inflation and a greater appreciation of the dollar, depending on the magnitude of the behavior of private actors who decide to cover if saving (increased dollar) or consume (inflation)

jueves, 2 de octubre de 2014

RESIGNATION OF PRESIDENT OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF ARGENTINA

On Tuesday after being found in contempt for Argentina American Justice and as is his custom, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner attended the speech with epic

Denounce a conspiracy of the USA
The USA itself indicted of attempted murder
Report a speculative attack vulture funds and local agents to force the devaluation
and other series of his own imagination conspiratorial acts.

Being very blurred in the indictment that speech that BCRA leaked information to the financial sector to encourage the speculative attack that came suffering.
One to watch that speech is missed that day the President of the Central Bank itself applauded that sentence without feeling alluded without understanding that they were asking the resigns.
This would be normal in this government if it were any official

INSTITUTIONAL VIOLATION

But with this attitude the independence of the Central Bank of Argentina is violent whose chairman is appointed for six years by the executive with the Senate and given the constitutional mandates is expected to cover two presidential terms of executive power to maintain its independence from the power of turn and fix monetary limits to administrative power.
Fabrega should have continued in office and face the onslaught of a ministry of economy that does not find him FISCAL DEFICIT FINANCING main problem, but his resignation confirms that since 2010 with the departure of Dr Martin Redrado president of the Central Bank he has acted in Appendix Executive

ANALYSIS OF MANAGEMENT JUAN CARLOS FABREGA

One asks him to stay, not only for efficiency but not validate the total loss of autonomy of the Central Bank for the benefit of the EXECUTIVE, because we must not forget that in the 315 days of his short tenure
BCRA reserves fell 3.500 million
50% Increase monetary issue
Increased 120% Stock Lebac
60% increase in the interest rate
Own gain reduced BCRA
Financio directly to the national treasury $ 77 billion pesos
The weight ratio by 60% devalued the dollar in all its management
Obviously the numbers speak for largely ineffective management

STRATEGY TO ESTABLISH THE LIC ALEJANDRO VANOLI 

Acting under directives from the Ministry of Economy 
The $ 150 billion projected fiscal deficit issue, including the violation of BCRA regulations for temporary advance 
No monetary issue new tenders sterilized via Lebac 
Down the interest rate 
It will issue a bond compulsive private banks to refinance the stock Lebac term maturities and stretch 
Regulate the financial system lending rates 
It will have a police and penal control the operation of the dollar against blue and counted against liquidation 
Prohibit the publication quoted the dollar than the officiating

CONCLUSION

His resignation does not recognize their own incompetence for the position, but by the public order of renunciation of self President of the Republic with which violent and little autonomy directly BCRA that had been observed.
Leave room for the appointment of Lic. Alejandro Vanoli an official without autonomy, that his appointment is politically active and devoid of all monetary technical knowledge to be in front of the Central Bank, and a police approach to the problem of the economy

RENUNCIA DEL PRESIDENTE DEL BANCO CENTRAL DE LA REPUBLICA ARGENTINA

El día martes luego de ser declarada Argentina en desacato por la Justicia Americana y como es su costumbre la presidenta Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner acudió al discurso con relato épico 

  • Denuncio una conspiración de los EEUU
  • Inculpo a los propios EEUU de un intento de asesinato
  • Denuncio un ataque especulativo de los fondos buitres y agentes locales para forzar la devaluacion 
  • y otras series de actos conspirativos propios de su imaginación.

Quedando muy desdibujado dentro de ese discurso la acusación que el BCRA filtraba información al sector financiero para favorecer el ataque especulativo que se venia sufriendo. 
Uno al mirar ese discurso queda extrañado que ese día el Presidente del propio Banco Central aplaudía esa frase sin sentirse aludido y sin entender que le estaban pidiendo la renuncia a su cargo.
Esto seria algo normal en este gobierno si se tratara de cualquier funcionario

VIOLACION INSTITUCIONAL 

Pero con esta actitud se violenta la independencia del Banco Central de Argentina cuyo presidente es nombrado por 6 años por el poder ejecutivo con acuerdo del Senado y dado los mandatos constitucionales esta previsto que abarcaría dos mandatos presidenciales del poder ejecutivo para mantener su independencia del poder de turno y fijarles limites monetario al poder administrativo.
Fabrega debía haber continuado en su cargo y hacer frente a la envestida de un ministerio de economia que no le encuentra FINANCIAMIENTO AL DEFICIT FISCAL principal problema, pero con su renuncia ratifica que desde el 2010 con la salida del Dr Martin Redrado de la presidencia el BCRA ha actuado de apéndice del Poder Ejecutivo 

ANALISIS DE LA GESTION JUAN CARLOS FABREGA

Uno pide que se quedara, no por su eficiencia sino solo para no convalidar la perdida total de autonomía del BCRA en beneficio del PODER EJECUTIVO,  ya que no debemos olvidar que en los 315 días de su corto mandato 
Las reservas del BCRA cayeron 3.500 millones
Aumento un 50% la emisión monetaria 
Incremento en un 120% el Stock de lebac
Incremento en un 60% la tasa de interés
Redujo las ganancia propias del BCRA
Financio en forma directa al  tesoro nacional en $77 mil millones de pesos 
El peso se devaluó un 60 % con relacion al dolar en toda su gestión 
Obviamente los números hablan de una gran ineficacia de su gestión

QUE ESTRATEGIA ESTABLECERA EL LIC ALEJANDRO VANOLI

Actuara bajo directivas del Ministerio de Economía
Se emitirá los $ 150 mil millones de déficit fiscal proyectado, incluyendo la violación de las normas del BCRA para adelanto transitorios 
No se esterilizara emisión monetaria vía licitaciones nuevas de lebac
Bajara la tasa de interés
Emitirá un bono compulsivo a los Bancos privados para refinanciar el stock de lebac y estirar plazo de vencimientos 
Regulara tasas activas del sistema financiero
Ejercerá un control policíaco y penal contra la operatoria del dolar blue y el contado contra liquidación 
Prohibirá la publicación de cotización del dolar que no sea la oficial
  
CONCLUSION

Su renuncia no es por reconocer su propia impericia para el cargo, sino por el pedido publico de renuncia de la propia Presidenta de la República con lo cual violenta directamente la ya poca autonomía del BCRA que se venia observando.
Deja espacio para el nombramiento del Lic. Alejandro Vanoli un funcionario sin autonomía propia, que su designación es por militancia política y carente de todo conocimiento técnico monetario para poder estar al frente del BCRA, y con una visión policíaca del problema de la economía