miércoles, 31 de julio de 2013

Employment Cost Index


Prior
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
ECI - Q/Q change
0.3 %
0.4 %
0.3 % to 0.6 %
0.5 %
ECI - Y/Y change
1.8 %
1.9 

 

Highlights
The hawks at the Federal Reserve may be able to find some ammunition against the doves in today's employment cost index report, but not too much. The second-quarter increase is on the high side, at plus 0.5 percent for a second straight quarter with the year-on-year rate, which is still under 2 percent, but just barely at 1.9 percent for a second straight quarter. The first-quarter rate is revised upward from an initial plus 0.3 percent with the year-on-year rate also revised higher from an initial 1.8 percent.

The direction of the components, however, is lower with wages & salaries showing a quarterly 0.4 percent rise, vs 0.5 percent in the first quarter, and with the benefits component at plus 0.4 percent vs the first quarter's 0.6 percent. Note that there are revisions to the benefits data which were skewed by coding errors in the first quarter.
Market Consensus before announcement
The employment cost index for civilian workers in the first quarter rose a quarterly 0.5 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain in the fourth quarter. Wages & salaries rose 0.5 percent was on the high side for this series and compares with 0.3 percent gains in the two prior quarters. These numbers reflect corrections by the BLS after the initial release

GDP


Prior
Prior Revised
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR
1.8 %
1.1 %
1.1 %
0.4 % to 2.0 %
1.7 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR
1.2 %
1.3 %
1.1 %
0.4 % to 1.6 %
0.7 %

 

Highlights
Second quarter GDP growth topped expectations but partly due to first quarter GDP being revised down with annual revisions. GDP gained an annualized 1.7 percent, following a 1.1 percent rise in the first quarter. The prior estimate for the first quarter was 1.8 percent. Analysts had projected a 1.1 percent advance for second quarter GDP.

Demand was soft in the second quarter but even softer than earlier believed in the first quarter. Final sales of domestic product posted at a gain of 1.3 percent versus the second quarter rise of 0.2 percent. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) increased 2.0 percent after nudging up 0.5 percent in the first quarter.

The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected upturns in nonresidential fixed investment (plus 4.6 percent versus minus 4.6 percent in the first quarter) and in exports (up 5.4 percent versus down 1.3 percent), and a smaller decrease in government spending (down 0.4 percent versus down 4.2 percent) that were partly offset by an acceleration in imports (up 9.5 percent versus 0.6 percent) and decelerations in private inventory investment ( rising to $56.7 billion from $42.2 billion versus rising from $7.3 billion to $42.2 billion) and in PCE (up 1.8 percent versus 2.3 percent).

Overall inflation slowed in the second quarter. Headline inflation for the GDP price index rose an annualized 0.7 percent after a 1.3 percent increase in the first quarter. When excluding food and energy, inflation eased to 1.1 percent in the second quarter from 1.6 percent the prior quarter.

Today's data include annual revisions. Annual average growth for 2012 was revised up to 2.8 percent from 2.2 percent; 2011 unrevised at 1.8 percent; and 2010 was nudged up to 2.5 percent from 2.4 percent.

Overall, the most recent quarterly numbers leave the markets and the Fed about where the economy was expected to be. The somewhat stronger second quarter growth was offset by a downward revision to the first quarter. Core inflation is not a worry although energy is based on more recent monthly numbers.

CANADA GROSS DOMESTIC

The Gross Domestic Porduct MoM May

ACTUAL        0,2
CONSENSUS 0,3
PREVIOUS     0,1

ADP Employment Report

Highlights
ADP's sample reports a 200,000 rise in private payroll growth for July vs June's upwardly revised 198,000 rise. Econoday expectations were looking for slight slowing, to 179,000 vs ADP's initial June reading of 188,000.

The Econoday consensus for Friday's nonfarm payroll headline, which includes government workers, is currently expected to show slowing, to 175,000 vs May's 195,000. Today's report is likely to raise expectations for a little bit more strength in Friday's data.
Market Consensus before announcement
ADP private payroll employment showed significant month-to-month improvement in job growth, to a still moderate 188,000 for private payrolls in June versus a slightly revised and less than moderate 134,000 gain in May. The BLS estimate for private payrolls in June posted at a gain of 202,000

martes, 30 de julio de 2013

NYSE: ETF RUSSELL 2000

 El ETF representante del Russell 2000 en el corto plazo necesita una sana y razonable descomprensión de indicadores técnicos como todo los índices americano esto se puede realizar en dos forma por tiempo o por corrección de precios, dependiendo básicamente de las palabras de Ben Bernanke y la intervención que la FED viene realizando en los mercados a través de los QEs, por ahora el mercado no se ha enfrentado a la fuerza de la FED y su política monetaria extremadamente laxa, haciendo salvedad a ello enfrentando este escenario podemos observar que una línea de tendencia secundaria viene siendo resistencia para el índice y de acuerdo al ajuste  a observar se puede ver que de corto plazo puede ir a testear los U$S 101,8 o bien los U$S 93 de ser una corrección por precios de mayor envergadura

En el Mediano plazo el índice debería romper esa resistencia de menor orden cercano a los U$S 106 para poder aspirar a un objetivo intermedio de U$S118,46 dado la estructura alcista de este ETF y de su correspondiente índice donde también coincide una resistencia dinámica del canal ascendente iniciado en octubre de 2012 que hasta la fecha se mantiene intacto, esto salvo que la FED empiece a cambiar su política monetaria o bien de intervenir en los mercados en forma directa, cosa poco probable hasta el momento.
La estructura de Largo Plazo el índice luce mas que tentador dado que ha formado un triangulo ascendente y ha provocado su ruptura en U$S 86,3 habilitando un objetivo muy ambicioso de U$S 138, siempre que la FED  no cambie su política en forma abrupta esta estructura técnica puede llegar a ser realizada,
De corto es necesaria una descongestión de índices pero el Mediano y Largo Plazo luce muy prometedor siempre haciendo salvedad de las políticas que implemente la FED, teniendo en cuenta si esta Bernanke con posibilidad de desarmar su propia burbuja 

Consumer Confidence

Highlights
There's more good news than meets the eye with the consumer confidence report where a nearly 2 point dip to 80.3 masks a strong gain in the present situation component. The assessment of the present situation offers the consumer's view of month-to-month conditions and a sharp gain here, of nearly 5 points to 73.6, hints at gains for the sweep of July's economic data.

Jobs hard to get, which is a closely watched month-to-month reading on the consumer's assessment of the current jobs market, fell to 35.5 percent for a sizable 1.6 percentage point decline from June which is very good news. This reading is perhaps the very first meaningful indication for Friday's July employment report, given distortions in weekly jobless claims data tied to summer retooling in the auto sector. The Dow is now moving higher, very likely in reaction to this specific reading.

But outside the assessment of the current jobs market, there is significant weakness in this report. The expectations component is down 6.4 points to 84.7 in a drop that reflects lack of confidence in the outlook for the jobs market, which of course is in contrast to the current assessment. Fewer consumers see job openings rising six months from now and more see job openings contracting.

A positive detail in the report, one that is not measured in the headline index, is strength in buying plans. More consumers expect to buy a house in the next six months as well as a vehicle. Expectations for appliance purchases are also up.

The big rise underway in gas prices is not affecting the consumer, at least yet. This points to resilience and confirms confidence in the present jobs market which is allowing consumers to look beyond the rise underway in pump prices. Inflation expectations are unchanged at 5.5 percent.

Another positive factor to consider is the tough comparison with June when many readings were at recovery highs. The message from the consumer is caution in the longer term outlook but confidence in the near term.
Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was at a recovery best, at 81.4 in June and up nearly 7 points from a revised 74.3 in May for the third straight strong gain. The assessment of the present situation is also up for a third straight month, at a recovery best 69.2 which hints at general strength for the slate of June indicators. But the gain here does mask a small uptick in those who say jobs are hard to get, now at 36.9 percent for a 5 tenths increase that does not point to new gains for the June employment report.

Expectations were also at a recovery best, up nearly 9 points to 89.5 and reflecting rising confidence in the long-term outlook for the jobs market.
Definition

S&P Case-Shiller HPI

Highlights
Home prices are extending their run of strong gains though the overall gain in May was a little softer than prior months, at 1.0 percent which is still quite strong though down from gains of 1.7 and 1.9 percent in the prior two months. May's data show gains across 18 of 20 cities with modest declines in Minneapolis and Cleveland interrupting what had been sweeping gains across the 20 city sample going back to the beginning of the year. Year-on-year, sales show a 12.1 percent gain in May which matches April's recovery high.

Unadjusted data, which are closely followed in this report, tell the same story with the year-on-year rate up 12.2 percent. Monthly data for the unadjusted rate show a 2.4 percent gain reflecting seasonal pricing strength during the summer months.

Home price appreciation is a major plus that's lifting consumer spirits and the economic outlook. Watch for commentary on the housing market in the FOMC statement tomorrow afternoon.
Market Consensus before announcement
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) was up 1.7 percent in April alone and followed a 1.9 percent jump in March. The year-on-year rate was notably strong, at plus 12.0 percent. Gains swept across all cities without exception with strength centered in the West where monthly gains are nearing 3 percent with year-on-year gains reaching 20 percent

lunes, 29 de julio de 2013

CROP PROGRESS

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048

Dallas Fed Mfg Survey

Highlights
Business has been a little soft this month in the Texas manufacturing sector based on the Dallas Fed's July report where most readings show a slower rate of monthly growth. The business activity index slowed to plus 4.4 from June's 6.5 with production at 11.4 vs 17.1 in June.

Data on new orders show slowing while unfilled orders show a small contraction. Capacity utilization is down slightly as are inventories though here the draw may reflect the still solid pace of production.

Employment in fact is up which underscores the relative strength of the report where many readings in June were at recovery highs which made for a tough comparison for July. Manufacturing in general has been picking up the last couple of months and is once again becoming a positive force for economic growth.
Market Consensus before announcement
The Dallas Fed general business activity index in its Texas manufacturing survey for June rose to 6.5 after posting negative readings in April and May. The company outlook index soared 20 points to 13.3, reaching its highest level in 16 months. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose six points to 17.1, posting its highest reading in more than two years. Notably stronger manufacturing activity was reflected in other survey measures as well. The new orders index climbed to 13 in June, a level not seen since July 2011. The capacity utilization index rose to a two-year high, jumping from 6.4 to 15.3. The shipments index advanced 12 points to 15.4. The company outlook index soared 20 points to 13.3, reaching its highest level in 16 months.

Dow Transporte LARGO, MEDIANO Y CORTO PLAZO

 
 
El grafico de corto de dow transporte empieza a analizarse algunos patrones de agotamiento y debemos tener en cuenta que es el índice que normalmente anticipa tendencia en el resto de los sectores, desde el punto de vista técnico se observa que alcanzo prácticamente el avance de 161,8% desde el ultimo correctivo de importancia y que es necesario una corrección de corto plazo como para poder buscar objetivos mas ambiciosos previas rupturas de importante resistencia de mediano y principalmente de largo plazo


 
 
El grafico semanal se observa un agotamiento del principal indicador MACD con una importante divergencia que anticipa una corrección de importancia para poder descomprimir indicadores primer soporte a testear seria los 5.540 puntos 
 
El grafico de largo plazo da una visión muy preocupante desde el plano técnico donde el MACD se torna descendente logro convalidar una resistencia del 127% del avance después de la fuerte caída producida entre mayo 2008 y marzo 2009 y de un pulback de Largo plazo que fue testeado dos veces durante este periodo de suba continua monitoreada por la política monetaria laxa de la FED y este índice ha sido un excelente anticipador de las diferentes crisis financieras, a seguirlo y moniorearlo muy de cerca


Pending Home Sales Index

Highlights
Rising mortgage rates together with rising home prices are cutting into sales of existing homes, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) whose pending home sales index for June is down 0.4 percent.
This report tracks contract signings and the NAR notes that rising rates are making prospective buyers change their minds which helps explain why strength in this report for May did not translate to strength for existing home sales in June. Typically, about 80 percent of pending home sales become existing home sales within two months.
Regional data for June show another gain, at plus 3.3 percent, for the West where real estate activity continues to be very strong. But other regions are flat including slight declines in the Midwest and South.
Another factor hurting sales is a continued lack of supply on the market which, however, may begin to ease as prices rise. Next US housing data on the Econoday calendar will be tomorrow morning with the Case-Shiller home price report.
Market Consensus before announcement
The pending home sales index jumped 6.7 percent in May, following a 0.5 percent dip in April. The May index level of 112.3 was the highest since the boom days of 2006. The year-on-year gain for the index is 12.1 percent, which is interestingly right in line with low double-digit gains for many home-price readings. The rise in mortgage rates that began in May appears to have lifted sales on fears that rates and prices would go up in coming months

S&P DE LARGO, MEDIANO Y CORTO PLAZO

Desde una visión de corto plazo el S&P de corto plazo los indicadores están anunciando el inicio de una corrección que en principio podría volver a testear la zona de 1580 (verificando la fortaleza de este soporte que fue resistencia de largo plazo para el índice en dos oportunidades marzo 2000 y octubre 2007) la EMA de 10 puede oficiar como primer soporte (actualmente en  1655) pero es necesario una descongestión del índice ante de intentar alcanzar valores mas ambiciosos.



 En el Grafico semanal se observa claramente que esta luchando contra una resistencia de un canal ascendente, pero las condiciones técnicas de indicadores de corto indican que seria necesaria una sana y prolija corrección poniendo a prueba la fortaleza del valor de 1580 que marcaria que podría ser un importante soporte de largo si logra consolidarse.
En largo plazo el índice claramente rompió una resistencia muy importante que habilita en el largo plazo la búsqueda de objetivos de 1820 resistencia del canal ascendente y el 127% de toda la baja iniciada en octubre del 2007
 
Por el momento mientras funcione la política laxa monetaria de la FED los índices americanos continúan un proceso de tendencia alcista dentro de esta tendencia cada sector han tenido comportamiento muy distinto y por ello hoy al llegar a valores tan altos, con alguna sensación de agotamiento es importante tener en cuenta ser muy selectivo en los sectores que pueden tener mejor recorrido y dentro de ellos valores que sus estructuras técnicas tengan solidez para sostener la tendencia alcista

jueves, 25 de julio de 2013

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

Highlights
Tenth District manufacturing activity rose moderately from last month, although producers' expectations for future activity eased somewhat. Price indexes were mixed, with a reduction in future materials prices but a slight increase in future selling prices.

The month-over-month composite index was 6 in July, up from minus 5 in June and 2 in May. Production increased at both durable and non-durable goods-producing plants, particularly in food, machinery, and aerospace products. Most other month-over-month indexes also improved. The production index increased from minus 17 to plus 21, its highest level since June 2011, and the shipments and new orders indexes also rose markedly. In contrast, the order backlog index edged lower from minus 4 to minus 7, and the employment index also eased slightly. The finished goods inventory index fell from 6 to 1, while the raw materials inventory index was unchanged.

Most future factory indexes moderated somewhat in July but still remained relatively solid.
Market Consensus before announcement
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was minus 5 in June, down from 2 in May but equal to minus 5 in April and March. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Production fell at both durable and non-durable goods-producing plants. Other month-over-month indexes showed mixed results. The production index dropped from 5 to minus 17, its lowest level since March 2009, and the shipments and new orders indexes also fell markedly. The order backlog and employment indexes increased somewhat but still remain slightly below zero. Both inventory indexes edged higher after falling in May.

Jobless Claims

Highlights
Initial jobless claims rose 7,000 in the July 20 week to 343,000 with the 4-week average down slightly to 345,250. The trend for the data are flat, pointing to no discernible improvement underway in the jobs market.

Once in a while continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week delay, get some attention and that may be the case to a degree for today's report as the reporting period, the week ending July 13, is also the sample week for the monthly employment report. And the data for the week show big improvement with a 119,000 decline to 2.997 million. But the decline only partially reverses big increases of 93,000 and 70,000 in the prior two weeks and leaves the 4-week average at 3.022 million which is still more than 40,000 higher than the month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers dipped back 1 tenth to 2.3 percent but is unchanged compared to a month ago.

July is the time that automakers shut down their factories for retooling and put their workers on leave, which brings into play major adjustment issues and substantially clouds the data. Don't expect today's report to have much influence at all on the jobs outlook or the markets.
Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims in the July 13 week fell 24,000 to 334,000, following a revised 14,000 rise that the Labor Department is attributing to summer layoffs in the auto industry. Summer retooling in the auto industry always plays havoc with week-to-week jobless claims data during July, a factor that puts extra emphasis on the 4-week average which was down 5,250 in the latest week to 346,000. Despite the decline, this level is just about even with the month-ago trend. In contrast, continuing claims jumped 91,000 to 3.114 million in the latest available data which were for the July 6 week. The 4-week average was up 37,000 to 3.019 million for the first 3 million reading since early May.

Durable Goods Orders

Highlights
Durables orders sharply beat expectations at the headline level but it was almost entirely due to aircraft orders at Boeing. Elsewhere, durables orders were mixed, ending net at flat for June. New factory orders for durables in June surged 4.2 percent, following an upward revised 5.2 percent (originally 3.7 percent) for May. Market expectations were for a 1.5 percent boost for June. The transportation component spiked 12.8 percent after a 14.8 percent jump in May. Excluding transportation, durables orders were unchanged in June, following a 1.0 percent rise in May. The consensus expected a 0.6 percent decrease in orders excluding transportation.

Unfilled orders, however suggest some overall continuing momentum for manufacturing. Overall unfilled orders jumped 2.1 percent in June, following a 1.1 percent increase in May. This was mostly aircraft but non-transportation was still respectable. Unfilled durables excluding transportation increased 0.9 percent in June, matching the May pace.

Turning back to new orders data, within transportation, motor vehicles gained 1.3 percent, nondefense aircraft jumped 31.4 percent, and defense aircraft increased 18.7 percent. Outside of transportation, components were mixed but net zero. Gains were seen in fabricated metals, machinery, and "other." Declines were seen in primary metals, computers & electronics, and electrical equipment.

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft continued to rise. This series rose 0.7percent, following a 2.2 percent boost in May. However, shipments for this series declined 2.0 percent, following a large 6.1 percent surge the month before.

Outside of aircraft, manufacturing appears to be sluggish in June although following moderate strength in May. But unfilled orders indicate a modest recent upward trend in manufacturing. The next big news for manufacturing will be next week's Markit PMI, ISM manufacturing, and manufacturing components in the employment situation.
Market Consensus before announcement
Durable goods orders in May jumped 3.7 percent, following a 3.6 percent spike the month before. The transportation component surged 10.9 percent after an 8.0 percent boost in April. Within transportation, nondefense aircraft jumped a monthly 50.8 percent; defense aircraft rose 3.7 percent; motor vehicle orders slipped 2.0 percent; and ships & boats jumped 50.8 percent. Excluding transportation, durables orders still gained 0.5 percent after a 1.8 percent increase in April. Outside of transportation, component strength for May was mostly broad based. Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.

miércoles, 24 de julio de 2013

New Home Sales

Highlights
Most of the fundamentals right now for the new home market are very favorable especially low supply which, despite perhaps keeping current sales down, points to rising construction and rising sales ahead. New home sales are at a new recovery high, at a higher-than-expected 497,000 annual rate in June vs Econoday expectations for 481,000. But the 16,000 difference between the result and expectations is offset, to a degree, by large downward revisions in the prior two months that total 30,000. But it's the direction of the latest month that counts the most and here the result points convincingly to momentum.

The availability of new homes on the market is extremely tight, at only 3.9 months at the current sales rate. A separate report from home builders issued earlier this month shows by far the strongest confidence of the recovery, a reflection of how low the supply is and how big the need is for new homes.

Prices have been very strong in the home market though today's report shows a second month of sharp declines on the new home side, down 5.0 percent for the median to $249,700 and down 4.0 percent for the average to $295,000. But the year-on-year rates, in the high single digits for both, are very respectable and in line with other home price readings including yesterday's FHFA report. Down or not, the extremely tight supply points squarely to pricing power ahead for home builders.

Regional details show mixed results with sales in the Northeast, South, and West up on the month but sales in the Midwest down. But the gains in the South and West, which are by far the two biggest markets for new homes, are the most important readings with the year-on-year gain in the South at an eye-popping 47 percent!

Today's report on net is a plus for the housing sector where recent data, in part because of rising mortgage prices, have been soft. The Dow is moving down in initial reaction to today's report, perhaps reflecting concern that momentum in the new home market could pull forward Federal Reserve tapering.
Market Consensus before announcement
New home sales came in at a stronger-than-expected annual rate of 476,000 in May. Upward revisions totaling 19,000 in the prior two months underscored the strength. A big issue holding back sales has been limited supply. But this appears to be changing somewhat. Supply is moving higher as builders pick up the pace. Supply on the market rose 4,000 in the month to 161,000 units. On a monthly sales basis, supply was at 4.1 months versus 4.0 months in April.

martes, 23 de julio de 2013

Petroleo Mediano y Corto Plazo

El petróleo viene respetando un canal ascendente de mediano plazo dinámico con un soporte de U$s94 y un techo de rango intermedio de U$S116 que de lograr superar puede ir a testear los valores máximos de julio del 2008, de todas formas estos patrones de precios vienen sostenido por una divergencia negativa del MACD según se señala en el grafico.
 
En el corto plazo vemos una fuerte divergencia negativa en el MACD y un RSI anticipando un proceso de corrección de corto plazo en busca de los U$S 94 que de acuerdo a la velocidad del ajuste y los datos macros de la economía principalmente los provenientes de China se vera si es solo un recorte técnico de corto o bien el fin del proceso de recuperación de precios iniciado en el año 2009.
El dato a observar en el corto plazo es el informe de mañana del EIA Petroleum Status Report y observar como evolucionan los futuros ya que los contratos a ser cerrados de junio de 2014 están con un descuento del 10% ya que el mercado vienen descontando que la situación macro futura no va a mejorar y la duda de las continuidad del relajamiento monetario implementado por la FED. quien es el principal sostenedor de los mercados.

U.S. housing prices recover slightly

Highlights
House prices continue to rebound. The FHFA house price index for May advanced 0.7 percent after gaining 0.5 percent in April. The consensus forecast a 0.8 percent increase. The May HPI change marks the sixteenth consecutive monthly price increase in the purchase-only, seasonally adjusted index. The U.S. index is 11.2 percent below its April 2007 peak.

The May increase was led by the South Atlantic region, increasing 1.8 percent. The weakest was the East South Central region which slipped 1.5 percent. Six of nine Census regions showed gains in the latest month; two declined; and one was flat.

The year-on-year rate for May posted at 7.3 percent, matching the April pace.

Overall, the housing sector continues to make moderate progress. The rise in home prices is favorable for the overall recovery as this will bring more supply to the housing market and add to consumer confidence.
Market Consensus before announcement
The FHFA purchase only house price index for April increased 0.7 percent after improving 1.5 percent in March. The April increase was led by the Mountain region, increasing 2.2 percent. Six of nine Census regions posted gains in the latest month. The year-on-year rate for April stood at 7.4 percent versus 7.5 percent for the month before.

Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales

Highlights

  • Existing home sales fell 1.2% in June from a downwardly revised 5.14 mln in May to 5.08 mln. The Briefing.com consensus expected existing home sales to increase to 5.28 mln.

Key Factors

    The drop in home sales does not bode well for the future. It was expected that rising mortgage rates would accelerate demand in the near term as potential buyers aimed to lock in mortgages before rates went even higher. That was supposed to pull sales forward into May, June and July, before a payback period developed in the future.
  • If this scenario played out in June, then the pool of potential buyers was smaller than most economists expected. There simply wasn't enough demand out there to keep sales moving at an increasing pace. That means the pullback, which we expected to begin in August, will be much sharper than previously thought. It would not be surprising if sales drop below 4.80 mln.
  • Yet, it is also possible that potential buyers did not believe rates would increase much, if at all, from their current level. That would mean that there would be no surge in demand and sales levels would remain near their current level and growth would be flat.
  • Sales trends over the next two months should explain which scenario has taken hold.
  • Unfortunately, the underlying data within the sales report does not give any hint on which scenario is most likely occurring.
  • Inventories rose slightly to 2.19 mln in June, which is a 5.2 month supply at the current sales pace. That is up from a 5.0 month supply in May, but is still well below normal inventories which generally average around a 6-month supply. 
  • The lack of supply has helped sellers see large price gains. The median existing home price rose 13.5% y/y to $214,200.
  • Distressed sales accounted for 15% of June sales. That was down from 18% in May and the lowest share since the National Association of Realtors started tracking this data in October 2008.
  • First-time homebuyers made up 29% of June sales, which was up from 28% in May. During normal periods of buying and selling activities, first-time buyers account for 40% of the market.

Big Picture

  • It will take a month or two to see if the drop in sales is the result of weakening or steady demand.

CategoryJUNMAYAPRMARFEB
Existing Home Sales5.08M5.14M4.97M4.94M4.95M
Months Supply5.25.05.24.74.6
Median Price Y/Y13.5%12.6%10.4%11.6%11.3%


viernes, 19 de julio de 2013

ETF financiero NYSE : XLF Evolucion de largo plazo




Siguiendo el grafico de largo plazo del ETF representativo del sector financiero cotizante en el NYSE podemos observar claramente que pudo romper una fuerte resistencia en torno de 18,5 precio que en al ser roto en octubre de 2008 precipitando y acelerando la crisis del sector y que durante todo este periodo de auge bursátil el ETF lo respeto como un techo muy difícil de romper y que impidió que el sector lograra la misma recuperación de valor que otros sectores de la economía de los EEUU, hoy esa ruptura de resistencia realizada en abril de este año habilita objetivos mas ambiciosos mas teniendo en cuenta que en el ultimo discurso el presidente de la FED alejo rumores de una finalización de los estímulos, que en algún momento llegara pero que sin lugar a duda no será en forma abrupta y que dependerá básicamente de la evolución de la economía.