miércoles, 31 de julio de 2013

GDP


Prior
Prior Revised
Consensus
Consensus Range
Actual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR
1.8 %
1.1 %
1.1 %
0.4 % to 2.0 %
1.7 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR
1.2 %
1.3 %
1.1 %
0.4 % to 1.6 %
0.7 %

 

Highlights
Second quarter GDP growth topped expectations but partly due to first quarter GDP being revised down with annual revisions. GDP gained an annualized 1.7 percent, following a 1.1 percent rise in the first quarter. The prior estimate for the first quarter was 1.8 percent. Analysts had projected a 1.1 percent advance for second quarter GDP.

Demand was soft in the second quarter but even softer than earlier believed in the first quarter. Final sales of domestic product posted at a gain of 1.3 percent versus the second quarter rise of 0.2 percent. Final sales to domestic producers (which exclude net exports) increased 2.0 percent after nudging up 0.5 percent in the first quarter.

The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected upturns in nonresidential fixed investment (plus 4.6 percent versus minus 4.6 percent in the first quarter) and in exports (up 5.4 percent versus down 1.3 percent), and a smaller decrease in government spending (down 0.4 percent versus down 4.2 percent) that were partly offset by an acceleration in imports (up 9.5 percent versus 0.6 percent) and decelerations in private inventory investment ( rising to $56.7 billion from $42.2 billion versus rising from $7.3 billion to $42.2 billion) and in PCE (up 1.8 percent versus 2.3 percent).

Overall inflation slowed in the second quarter. Headline inflation for the GDP price index rose an annualized 0.7 percent after a 1.3 percent increase in the first quarter. When excluding food and energy, inflation eased to 1.1 percent in the second quarter from 1.6 percent the prior quarter.

Today's data include annual revisions. Annual average growth for 2012 was revised up to 2.8 percent from 2.2 percent; 2011 unrevised at 1.8 percent; and 2010 was nudged up to 2.5 percent from 2.4 percent.

Overall, the most recent quarterly numbers leave the markets and the Fed about where the economy was expected to be. The somewhat stronger second quarter growth was offset by a downward revision to the first quarter. Core inflation is not a worry although energy is based on more recent monthly numbers.