martes, 27 de enero de 2015

EEUU: Bad data Durable Goods Orders, threatening revaluation of the dollar, and the actions of the Fed

Durables orders unexpectedly fell 3.4 percent in December after dropping 2.1 percent in November. Analysts projected a 0.7 percent rise.

Excluding transportation, the core slipped 0.8 in December following a decline of 1.3 percent in November. Market expectations were for a 0.8 percent boost in December. Transportation plunged a monthly 9.2 percent after dropping 3.9 percent in November. Motor vehicles rose 2.7 percent, nondefense aircraft plunged 55.5 percent, and defense aircraft fell 19.9 percent. 

Outside of transportation, weakness was mixed. Industries posting gains were fabricated metals, electrical equipment, and "other." Declines were seen in primary metals, machinery, and computers & electronics. 

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dropped 0.6 percent after a decline of 0.6 percent in November. Shipments of this series eased 0.2 percent in December after dropping 0.6 percent the month before.

Overall, manufacturing is soft. The outlook is questionable with the recently sharp boost in the value of the dollar.

Equity futures dropped very sharply on the news. However, earnings concerns also weighed on futures.
Recent History Of This Indicator
Durable goods orders dipped 0.9 percent in November after rising 0.3 percent in October. The core declined 0.7 percent in November after a drop of 1.2 percent in October. Transportation fell a monthly 1.2 percent after jumping a monthly 3.3 percent in October. Motor vehicles and nondefense aircraft were up but defense aircraft orders were down notably. Outside of transportation, weakness was mixed but mostly down. The only major industry posting a gain in the latest month was machinery. Electrical equipment was flat. Declines were seen in primary metals, fabricated metals, and "other."

Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.