viernes, 6 de diciembre de 2013

Employment Situation Nov 2013

Highlights After today's employment report, taper talk may be on the table at this month's FOMC meeting. Total payroll jobs in November advanced 203,000, following a revised increase of 200,000 for October (originally up 204,000) and after a revised gain of 175,000 for September (previous estimate was 163,000). Analysts forecast a 180,000 rise. The net revisions for September and October were up 8,000. Private payrolls expanded 196,000 after gaining 214,000 in October. Expectations were for 173,000 in November. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0 percent from 7.3 percent in October. The consensus called for a 7.2 percent unemployment rate. However, part of the reason for the decline was a low participation rate. Wage growth posted at 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. The median market forecast was for a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek nudged up to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours and matching analysts' forecast for 34.5 hours. Given that payrolls topped expectations with a moderately healthy gain, the FOMC likely will at a minimum increase its discussion of tapering QE. More detail coming. Please check back. Market Consensus before announcement The October jobs report overall topped expectations, though there were some weak spots. Total payroll jobs in October increased 204,000, following a revised increase of 163,000 for September (originally up 148,000) and after a revised gain of 238,000 for August (previous estimate was 193,000). The consensus forecast was for a 120,000 rise for the latest month. The net revisions for August and September were up 60,000. Private payrolls gained 212,000 after a 150,000 increase in September. The consensus expected 128,000 in October. The unemployment rate firmed to 7.3 percent after dipping to 7.2 percent in September. The median forecast was for a 7.3 percent unemployment rate. According to the BLS, "There were no discernible impacts of the partial federal government shutdown on the estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the establishment survey." Private service-providing jobs increased 177,000 in October after a 123,000 rise in September. Government jobs declined 8,000 in October after gaining 13,000 in September. Wage growth was sluggish in October, rising only 0.1 percent for average hourly earnings, following 0.1 percent the month before. The average workweek held steady at 34.4 hours, but falling short of analysts' forecast for 34.5 hours.

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