martes, 29 de octubre de 2013

S&P Case-Shiller HPI slowly has been recovering the sector and property prices in the U.S.

Home-price appreciation was picking up new steam in August, at an adjusted 0.9 percent vs 0.6 percent in July for the 20-city index. This is the first monthly pickup since April when prices jumped 1.7 percent. The year-on-year rate is showing special strength, at plus 12.8 percent for a 5 tenth gain from July and the best rate of the recovery.

City data show a clean 20-city sweep of monthly gains led by Las Vegas at 2.3 percent and Los Angeles at 1.7 percent. For the year-on-year rate, Las Vegas once again leads, at plus 29.2 percent followed by San Francisco at plus 25.4 percent. At plus 3.5 percent, the lowest is New York where however the rate has been steadily improving.

Unadjusted data are followed closely in this report with the unadjusted monthly rate at plus 1.3 percent for the 20-city index which is down from July's 1.8 percent. But the year-on-year rate, like that for the adjusted index, is also up 5 tenths in the months and also at plus 12.8 percent is at a new recovery high.

Home-price appreciation is a plus of course for homeowner wealth but higher prices are a big negative for home sales, a factor that is apparent in a run of home sales data including yesterday's very weak pending home sales report.
Market Consensus before announcement
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) was up 0.6 percent in July, but down from 0.9 percent gains in the prior two months and down from 1.7 and 1.9 percent gains in the two months before that. But the year-on-year adjusted rate, at plus 12.3 percent, was up 3 tenths for a new recovery high. If the latest Case-Shiller follows movement in the August FHFA index, there could be some deceleration as this index decelerated to a rise of 0.3 percent after jumping 0.8 percent in July.